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Real gdp forecast bar graph3/28/2023 But those sectors don't usually send signals about the future of economic activity. The opposite was true at the end of the year.ĭetails: Inventory adjustments and government spending both provided a notable boost to the headline figure last quarter, adding 1.5 and 0.6 percentage points to the overall GDP numbers, respectively. By contrast, in the first half of the year, final sales data pointed to economic resilience, even as negative growth figures stirred up recession fears.That figure excludes the impact of trade, government spending, and inventory adjustments on overall GDP numbers it only reflects demand from U.S.-based consumers and businesses.That is good news for the inflation outlook, though it could mean some weaker overall growth lies ahead in 2023.īy the numbers: Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at an 0.2% annual rate in Q4, a sharp slowdown from the 2.1% recorded in Q1. But underneath the hood, demand growth slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter.Why it matters: The report offers something for everyone: a strong headline number that helps the Biden administration (and others) tell a sunny story. But a look at some of the underlying details suggests the economy is actually losing momentum - more evidence that the Federal Reserve's campaign to put a brake on growth is having an impact. ![]() At first glance, fourth quarter GDP appears fairly upbeat: The economy grew at a 2.9% annualized pace in the final months of 2022, even better than analysts anticipated.
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